Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska 2026, vol. 28, pp. 75-91
Orhun Soydan 
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Burdur Mehmet Akif Ersoy University, Turkey |
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https://doi.org/10.54740/ros.2026.006 |
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This study presents a comprehensive statistical and spatial evaluation of lake water quality dynamics across the Burdur–Antalya basin (Turkey) from 2014 to 2024. Using long-term monitoring data and Sentinel-2 imagery, eight key parameters (DO, BOD₅, COD, NO₃⁻, TP, NH₄⁺ and NDWI) were analyzed to assess eutrophication risk and hydrological changes. Temporal trends were examined using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator, revealing significant oxygen decline in Burdur (Z = −1.98, p < 0.05; β = −0.05 mg·L⁻¹·yr⁻¹) and increasing BOD₅ in Avlan (β ≈ +0.12 mg·L⁻¹·yr⁻¹). Multivariate techniques, including Pearson correlation, PCA, and hierarchical clustering, explained 63.8% of the total variance (PC1 = 42.5%), revealing a dominant trophic–hydrological stress gradient. Strong negative correlations were found between DO and temperature (r = −0.76, p < 0.001), while NDWI-derived analyses showed surface water shrinkage of up to 18%, significantly associated with rising temperature (r = −0.82, p < 0.01) and declining DO (R² = 0.63). The Integrated Pollution Risk Index (IPRI) ranged from 0.21 (Salda) to 0.63 (Burdur), identifying critical hotspots along the northern and eastern shores of Burdur and Karataş Lakes. These results highlight the synergistic effects of anthropogenic load and climate-driven desiccation, underscoring the need for catchment-scale management and continuous monitoring under semi-arid Mediterranean conditions.
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NDWI, multivariate statistical analysis, Mann–Kendall trend, pollution risk mapping, Burdur–Antalya basin
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AMA Style
Soydan O.. Statistical and Spatial Analysis of Water Quality in Burdur and Antalya Lakes, Turkey. Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska. 2026; 28. https://doi.org/10.54740/ros.2026.006
ACM Style
Soydan O.. 2026. Statistical and Spatial Analysis of Water Quality in Burdur and Antalya Lakes, Turkey. Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska. 28. DOI:https://doi.org/10.54740/ros.2026.006
ACS Style
Soydan O., Statistical and Spatial Analysis of Water Quality in Burdur and Antalya Lakes, Turkey Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska 2026, 28, 75-91. https://doi.org/10.54740/ros.2026.006
APA Style
Soydan O. (2026). Statistical and Spatial Analysis of Water Quality in Burdur and Antalya Lakes, Turkey. Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska, 28, 75-91. https://doi.org/10.54740/ros.2026.006
ABNT Style
SOYDAN O.. Statistical and Spatial Analysis of Water Quality in Burdur and Antalya Lakes, Turkey. Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska, v. 28, p. 75-91, 2026. https://doi.org/10.54740/ros.2026.006
Chicago Style
Orhun Soydan. 2026. "Statistical and Spatial Analysis of Water Quality in Burdur and Antalya Lakes, Turkey". Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska 28, 75-91. https://doi.org/10.54740/ros.2026.006
Harvard Style
Soydan O. (2026) "Statistical and Spatial Analysis of Water Quality in Burdur and Antalya Lakes, Turkey", Rocznik Ochrona Środowiska, 28, pp. 75-91. doi:https://doi.org/10.54740/ros.2026.006
IEEE Style
Soydan O., "Statistical and Spatial Analysis of Water Quality in Burdur and Antalya Lakes, Turkey", RoczOchrSrod, vol 28, pp. 75-91. https://doi.org/10.54740/ros.2026.006
